An Operational Patient-centric Framework for Brand Planning using Dynamic Modeling
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
1:00 - 2:00 pm
Breakout C
Presentation Abstract
“The future ain’t what it used to be” – Yogi Berra
Traditional brand planning has relied on tried-and-true data and a simple approach for developing annual and multi-year scenarios. It has involved trending out national-level New Rxs, multiplying by the refill ratio of Total to New Rxs and dollarizing results. The concept has been that “New” Rxs are a proxy for new patients on a product and that the refill ratio is a measure of persistence. So, if one can figure out how many new patients start in a given month and how long they stay on therapy on average, then it is a straight-forward calculation to compute total drug usage and ensuing revenue.
As disaggregated physician and patient-level data have proliferated and more elegant techniques for building and testing models have evolved, this simple approach of “New Rxs/month X Refills” has become less useful in terms of understanding and acting on particular leverage points in increasing future product usage and demand.
This presentation will show how one can implement a framework from the same conceptual roots, but one more grounded in operational measures that can be gleaned from today’s patient-centric databases. Ultimately, if two approaches are consistent in their treatment of data and assumptions, then the results should validate each other. So, in this spirit, we propose using this framework as a way of confirming and contrasting scenario forecasts with simpler traditional modeling results. After all, in a rapidly changing world, one needs to validate not only changes in data, metrics and assumptions, but also changes in the modeling approaches in order to seek out new points of leverage in forecasting and shaping future trends.
Speaker Biographies
Tom Abbott leads i3’s newest business unit focused on the application of i3’s unique data assets and technology to support pharmaceutical, biotechnology and device manufactures’ sales and marketing activities. Tom has over 16 years of experience managing, designing, and conducting market research and health outcomes studies. Tom began his career as a faculty member at the Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University in 1987. In 1995 Tom joined the pharmaceutical industry as a Director, Outcomes Research and Management at Merck & Co. Inc. where he held several other leadership positions. In 2004, Tom assumed a leadership position at Thomson-Medstat and most recently was Vice President Brand Analytics at Wolters-Kluwer. Tom has a PhD in Economics from Harvard (1987), a Post-Doc in Health Services Research from Yale (1993) and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (2003).
Taylor has over 30 years experience in health care management, research and consulting. Taylor has been a Principal with William M. Mercer, Inc, a Vice President at Quintiles, and has held senior executive positions at Aetna, CIGNA and UnitedHealthcare and in Medicaid and workers’ compensation insurance. Taylor’s recent research focus has been on Medicare Part D and on the integration of person level health experience with socio-economic and consumer data to better understand drivers of health behaviors. Taylor has a PhD in Economics, and he has held academic positions teaching economics and statistics.
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